rmkicks
02-01-2014, 11:16 AM
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The Super Bowl
isn’t the highest rated game of the year because only football fans watch. Your girlfriend, that buddy who’s into World of Warcraft, and Aunt Millie all tune in or go to a party where it’s on.
This is where Super Bowl prop bets can make the night more interesting, whether you put money on the line or not. You’re not guessing who will win or the over/under on the point total. It’s every little detail of the Super Bowl, from the national anthem to who will make the final score of the game. It takes little real knowledge of the game, though, and everyone can jump in.
If you’re going to put your football knowledge on the line—and perhaps a little money—then you at least want to be right when the Broncos and Seahawks square off. We reached out to Paul Bessire, who has used his statistical wizardry at Predictionmachine.com (http://www.predictionmachine.com/) to go 8-1-1 in the playoffs against the spread this year. His analysis is also useful in the quirkier parts of the game that includes prop bets. Here are five wagers you’re most likely to land, and the ones you should definitely avoid.
Peyton Manning’s total touchdowns: Over/Under 2½
Go with the under. People are in love with Manning and rightly so: He has the single-season record for touchdown passes and yards this year. Most assume he will have a big game, so bettors are taking the over. “I think [the public] is ignoring the strength of the Seattle defense he’s facing and the tempo of offense that Seattle runs,” says Bessire. The Super Bowl also tends to be a lower scoring game, and in the five games that Denver scored 30 or fewer points, Manning went over 2½ touchdowns just once.
Denver kicker Matt Prater’s total points: Over/Under 9 points
Go with the under. Again, it could be a lower scoring game for both teams. In the 10 games where Denver didn’t score more than 35, Prater only tallied more than 9 points kicking twice, says Bessire. “It’s one of the best value bets out there right now,” he says.
The longest touchdown in the game: Over/Under 42½ yards
Go with the under. Most people expect a big play in the Super Bowl, but in the 36 games that these two teams have played in the regular season and playoffs, their defenses gave up touchdowns longer than 42 yards just four times—once for Seattle and three times for Denver.
How long will it take Renee Fleming to sing the national anthem: Over/Under 2 minutes 25 seconds
Go with the under. “People tend to lean on the over, so the books usually set the line higher than they would otherwise,” says Bessire. Fleming’s operatic style has made this the longest line on this bet ever. No dice though. While it’s harder to predict this exactly, Bessire compared how other anthem singers like Christina Aguilera, Alicia Keys, and Beyonce sang the song publicly compared to Fleming in the past, and he configured a ratio that has her at around 2 minutes and 19 seconds.
How many times will Peyton Manning say “Omaha”: Over/Under 27½
Go with the over. During the playoffs, on-field microphones have picked up on Manning’s audible call of “Omaha, Omaha!” Bessire says his analysis of games where he could extract game audio shows that Peyton averages between 0.6 and 0.7 Omahas per snap. “On our projection on total number of plays, we came up with 32.6 Omahas for this game,” he says. Don’t worry that Manning will replace Omaha with another town like “Oshkosh” because everybody is talking about it. “I think it’s more likely he uses it more often and switches its meaning,” says Bessire.
Avoid these prop bets
Two that Bessire always shies away from are the pregame coin flip and predicting the first person to score. You can also bet on whether there will be a safety—and there has been one in the last two Super Bowls—but it’s still unlikely that it occurs.
One thing that is also a stay-away bet: anything that involves the Red Hot Chili Peppers at halftime. “They are the ultimate wild card for prop bets,” says Bessire about one bet on whether they will be shirtless during the performance. “Which I guess is a compliment to them!”
The Super Bowl
isn’t the highest rated game of the year because only football fans watch. Your girlfriend, that buddy who’s into World of Warcraft, and Aunt Millie all tune in or go to a party where it’s on.
This is where Super Bowl prop bets can make the night more interesting, whether you put money on the line or not. You’re not guessing who will win or the over/under on the point total. It’s every little detail of the Super Bowl, from the national anthem to who will make the final score of the game. It takes little real knowledge of the game, though, and everyone can jump in.
If you’re going to put your football knowledge on the line—and perhaps a little money—then you at least want to be right when the Broncos and Seahawks square off. We reached out to Paul Bessire, who has used his statistical wizardry at Predictionmachine.com (http://www.predictionmachine.com/) to go 8-1-1 in the playoffs against the spread this year. His analysis is also useful in the quirkier parts of the game that includes prop bets. Here are five wagers you’re most likely to land, and the ones you should definitely avoid.
Peyton Manning’s total touchdowns: Over/Under 2½
Go with the under. People are in love with Manning and rightly so: He has the single-season record for touchdown passes and yards this year. Most assume he will have a big game, so bettors are taking the over. “I think [the public] is ignoring the strength of the Seattle defense he’s facing and the tempo of offense that Seattle runs,” says Bessire. The Super Bowl also tends to be a lower scoring game, and in the five games that Denver scored 30 or fewer points, Manning went over 2½ touchdowns just once.
Denver kicker Matt Prater’s total points: Over/Under 9 points
Go with the under. Again, it could be a lower scoring game for both teams. In the 10 games where Denver didn’t score more than 35, Prater only tallied more than 9 points kicking twice, says Bessire. “It’s one of the best value bets out there right now,” he says.
The longest touchdown in the game: Over/Under 42½ yards
Go with the under. Most people expect a big play in the Super Bowl, but in the 36 games that these two teams have played in the regular season and playoffs, their defenses gave up touchdowns longer than 42 yards just four times—once for Seattle and three times for Denver.
How long will it take Renee Fleming to sing the national anthem: Over/Under 2 minutes 25 seconds
Go with the under. “People tend to lean on the over, so the books usually set the line higher than they would otherwise,” says Bessire. Fleming’s operatic style has made this the longest line on this bet ever. No dice though. While it’s harder to predict this exactly, Bessire compared how other anthem singers like Christina Aguilera, Alicia Keys, and Beyonce sang the song publicly compared to Fleming in the past, and he configured a ratio that has her at around 2 minutes and 19 seconds.
How many times will Peyton Manning say “Omaha”: Over/Under 27½
Go with the over. During the playoffs, on-field microphones have picked up on Manning’s audible call of “Omaha, Omaha!” Bessire says his analysis of games where he could extract game audio shows that Peyton averages between 0.6 and 0.7 Omahas per snap. “On our projection on total number of plays, we came up with 32.6 Omahas for this game,” he says. Don’t worry that Manning will replace Omaha with another town like “Oshkosh” because everybody is talking about it. “I think it’s more likely he uses it more often and switches its meaning,” says Bessire.
Avoid these prop bets
Two that Bessire always shies away from are the pregame coin flip and predicting the first person to score. You can also bet on whether there will be a safety—and there has been one in the last two Super Bowls—but it’s still unlikely that it occurs.
One thing that is also a stay-away bet: anything that involves the Red Hot Chili Peppers at halftime. “They are the ultimate wild card for prop bets,” says Bessire about one bet on whether they will be shirtless during the performance. “Which I guess is a compliment to them!”