Determining Natural Bodybuilding Potential

[STEROID]

Determining Natural Bodybuilding Potential
Author--Mick Madden

Can you determine natural bodybuilding potential? Is it possible to determine if a lifter is a natural or steroid user? The answer is yes to both questions.

The formula. The following equation is derived scientifically, studying approximately 300 winning drug-free strength training athletes and bodybuilders from 1947-2007. For more information please visit Casey Butt’s article, Your Maximum Muscular Bodyweight and Measurements (http://www.fitnessgeared.com/forum/redirect-to/?redirect=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.weightrainer.net%2Fpote ntial.html).


http://www.muscleandbrawn.com/images/formulagif.gif
H = Height in inches

W = Wrist circumference located at the hand side of the bony lump on the wrist (known as the styloid process)
A = Ankle circumference at the smallest measurement
BF% = The bodyfat percentage at which the ankle and wrist circumferences were taken


Potential Variance. The natural bodyweight potentials listed below are derived using a wrist circumference of 7.5 inches, and an ankle circumference of 9.5 inches. These numbers are reasonable for the heaviest of natural lifters. (Note: the author’s wrist circumference is 8.0 inches, and ankle circumference is 10.0 inches at a bodyweight of 280 pounds. So you can see that for a natural lifter under 220 pounds, 7.5 and 9.5 are very reasonable numbers)


For a 0.5 differential in BOTH numbers (a lifter’s wrist is 8.0 inches and ankle is 10.0 inches instead of 7.5 and 9.5), the weight variance using the formula would be an additional 5.2 pounds of lean mass. In simple terms, for every additional inch of circumference (from either ankle, wrist, or both combined) above the potentials listed below, a lifter could have an additional 5.2 pounds of lean mass.


Again, keep in mind that the numbers used to derive natural potential (7.5 wrist circumference and 9.5 ankle circumference) are at the high end of normal for a natural bodybuilder with under 20% bodyfat. Therefore, a reasonable maximum potential variance for natural lifters from the below numbers would be plus 3 pounds. For smaller wrist/ankle boned lifters, the numbers could be smaller by up to 10 pounds.


The numbers. Using the above formula, and inserting 7.5 wrist inches and 9.5 ankle inches, we derive the following natural bodyweight lean body mass potentials for a 6% bodyfat percentage. Again, the derived numbers below are lean bodyweight, which means total bodyweight less fat. It is not total competition bodyweight including the 6% bodyfat.


The reduced formula with wrist and ankle circumferences and a 6% bodyfat percentage is…
H^1.5 (0.31037632)


Height, 66 inches = 166.4 lean body mass potential. Competition weight = 177.0 pounds
Height, 67 inches = 170.2 lean body mass potential. Competition weight = 181.1 pounds
Height, 68 inches = 174.0 lean body mass potential. Competition weight = 185.1 pounds
Height, 69 inches = 177.9 lean body mass potential. Competition weight = 189.3 pounds
Height, 70 inches = 181.8 lean body mass potential. Competition weight = 193.4 pounds

Height, 71 inches = 185.7 lean body mass potential. Competition weight = 197.6 pounds
Height, 72 inches = 189.6 lean body mass potential. Competition weight = 201.7 pounds
Height, 73 inches = 193.6 lean body mass potential. Competition weight = 206.0 pounds
Height, 74 inches = 197.6 lean body mass potential. Competition weight = 210.2 pounds
Height, 75 inches = 201.6 lean body mass potential. Competition weight = 214.5 pounds
Height, 76 inches = 205.6 lean body mass potential. Competition weight = 218.7 pounds


A personal analysis. Last year I religiously measured my bodyfat percentage as I lost weight and packed on muscle. My estimated lean body mass was 178 pounds, at a height of 5’10″. This tells me that I was approximately 4 pound shy of my natural limit. Judging from my muscularity at the time, I believe this number to be dead on.


Bottom line. It is possible for a natural lifter to exceed these numbers by a very small percentage. But, it is virtually impossible for a natural lifter to exceed their potential by more then a few pounds. Based on ankle and wrist circumference, I think it is safe to say that a lifter who exceeds their natural potential by more than 5-10 pounds lean mass is certainly suspect.

[TheGreatWhiteTruth]

Wow this is an awesome post. I've always wondered if there was such a way to calculate your natty limit.

[tilltheend]

I really think that formula can be broken. If you are using supplements or even calming your mind or trying to get better sleep, you can change the way your hormones work. I think you can change how much GH, test, and IGF, your body produces which can change bone structure, it migt not increase your height, but it can change bone structure, also aiding in more dense muscle. If you start eating healthy food, calming yourself, and training spot on I think you can beat your genetic potential that way, because you would be changing it in more ways than one.

[STEROID]

I really think that formula can be broken. If you are using supplements or even calming your mind or trying to get better sleep, you can change the way your hormones work. I think you can change how much GH, test, and IGF, your body produces which can change bone structure, it migt not increase your height, but it can change bone structure, also aiding in more dense muscle. If you start eating healthy food, calming yourself, and training spot on I think you can beat your genetic potential that way, because you would be changing it in more ways than one.


TTE,the whole point of this is in the title....Determining "NATURAL" potential.Its not set in stone but a determining factor for the majority of us.Can there be differences to this? Of course. Saying you may be able to change this by supplementing,getting more sleep of changing stress levels has no relevance to this study.Having plastic surgery can change this as well.

This is just a guideline, "base" way of determining your "natural" potential that has been proven a reliable formula.

[Hntd]

Im curious to know where they pulled the 22.66 and 17.104 constants from. A lot of their math is not really adequately explained, so it almost leads to the trouble conclusion of bullshit numbers. At least in my opinion. Usually mathematical models are not this precise. Especially for something with so many unknown variables as your natural potential. Also, because the idea of "natural potential" seems very subjective to me. I'm suspect to a bit of their math, but if it holds true it'd be a very impressive predictive model. I think as a good contrast they should apply this to people who obviously are not natural, such as most professional bodybuilders and perhaps some professional athletes.

Another problem with this is that they prove it for their test group to be inline with the model, but they don't contrast it against anything, which again leads to possible assumptions in what this model can predict, which really isn't science. If this model is meant to predict natural potential, but you apply to ronnie coleman to find that his "natural" potential is 300lbs of mass then you really haven't proven anything.