UFC 142 preview: What do the stats tell us about Aldo vs. Mendes?

**STEROID** · 01-15-2012, 12:01 AM

UFC 142 preview: What do the stats tell us about Aldo vs. Mendes?
by Steven Marrocco on Jan 14, 2012 at 3:45 pm ET

As they say, a fight is a fight, and anything can happen.

Featherweight challenger Chad Mendes (11-0 MMA, 2-0 UFC) is undefeated in 11 pro outings, but he isn't tested to the degree of featherweight champ Jose Aldo (20-1 MMA, 2-0 UFC), and he's unfamiliar with a five-round fight.

Aldo is the champ, Aldo has the home field advantage, and Aldo's mystique, though recently dulled, still hovers. A highlight-reel clocking at near-short-film length will do that.

But even armchair generals can spot the fulcrum of Saturday's title fight at UFC 142, which pits Mendes against Aldo in the third defense of his UFC belt (or sixth if you include his reign in the now-defunct WEC). Mendes is a wrestler, and he's perhaps more qualified than anyone to put Aldo on his back for five rounds and win points – like a miniature Mark Coleman.

A highlight reel of takedowns will do that.

No cold statistic is going to contradict that assessment. But the manner in which Mendes can be successful is not only defined in takedown accuracy, where Mendes outstrips any of Aldo's previous opponents at 68 percent (or 5.25 per 15 minutes), but striking defense.

Because let's face it – Mendes is going to have to get through some punches and kicks to reach his preferred destination.

UFC 142 takes place at HSBC Arena in Rio de Janeiro. Its main card airs live on pay-per-view while preliminary-card fights air on FX and stream on Facebook.

According to FightMetric, a website that tracks fighters' career statistics, Mendes' striking defense stands at a whopping 74 percent. That means he blocks more of his opponent's significant strikes than any of Aldo's previous foes.

Although Mendes has half the professional fights as Aldo, his striking accuracy as measured by his appearances in the WEC and UFC stands at 47 percent to Aldo's 49 percent. The challenger has outstruck Rani Yahya, Michihiro Omigawa and even the Duke Roufus-trained Erik Koch.

Now, statistics don't play in MMA the way they do in other major sports. A well-placed punch might send Mendes' head to the canvas, but not the stats that very generally measure his effectiveness. However, they certainly lend credence to the idea that the moments when the two stand in open range and contemplate each other's combat motives – i.e., the beginning of the round – might not be as lopsided in Aldo's favor as many might think.

Hardly anyone would argue that Aldo doesn't have the striking advantage. There are his devastating leg kicks. Nearly two years ago, they derailed the hopes of the only other significant wrestling threat in Aldo's career to date in Urijah Faber. But Mendes has a direct line to Faber as a longtime teammate, and he'd be foolish not to learn from that example.

On the other hand, Aldo has struggled to put away his most recent opponents, Mark Hominick. Whether that was the cause of a tough weight cut, pre-existing injuries, top-notch opposition or just a plain bad night, it's something for which statistics have little answer.

What hasn't deviated much at all is the champion's takedown defense, and here's where it gets tricky for Mendes. Aldo successfully sprawls 94 percent of the time, and that, in theory, gives him more of a chance to do what he does best.

And let's not forget the fact that Aldo is successful in 60 percent of his takedowns, and Mendes hasn't been on his back against world-class competition.

Who do oddsmakers favor? Aldo, who at -250 has around a 70 percent chance of winning the fight, bucking the usual axiom that the superior wrestler has the advantage in deciding where a fight goes. Mendes, at +200, is facing an uphill battle.

Maybe that's mystique talking. We'll nevertheless see which statistics, if any, are borne out on Saturday.

Anthony Johnson's reinvention or temporary relocation?

Speaking of odds, bettors can't decide whom to favor in a middleweight matchup between former light-heavyweight champ Vitor Belfort (20-9 MMA, 9-5 UFC) and Anthony Johnson (10-3 MMA, 7-3 UFC). One popular line has them dead even at -115.

That's likely a reflection of the one-round dynamo that is Belfort at his best. The onetime middleweight title challenger has knocked out four of his past five opponents with three of them coming in the first frame. Most recently, he ended the durable Yoshihiro Akiyama in fewer than two minutes, which put him back on track after a front-kick knockout loss to champ Anderson Silva.

Johnson has a recent knockout on his record, that of a head-kick KO of Charlie Brenneman this past June. He's earned seven of his 10 wins by KO or TKO with six of them in the first round.

The indecision, however, rests with his weight. It's Johnson's first time fighting at 185 pounds, and a fighter's move up in weight class always prompts questions of whether speed and agility will remain with added bulk. Johnson is a massive welterweight, and he's still massive as a middleweight, so it doesn't seem to be much of an X-factor.

Perhaps underlooked is Johnson's recently displayed skill in taking dangerous strikers to the mat. He did just so against onetime welterweight title challenger Dan Hardy and won a lopsided decision. Belfort is not known for his strength against takedown artists, much less when he's taken into deep waters.

Belfort's recent resume is impressive, save for his knockout loss, but one has to wonder why his history has been discarded. Losses to Randy Couture, Tito Ortiz and Dan Henderson were just a few examples of his difficulties in dealing with grapplers. While not yet on the level of recognition of those fighters, the powerful Johnson may use his bulk to recreate what seems a clear blueprint for beating Belfort.

In other main-card action, submission specialist Rousimar Palhares (13-3 MMA, 6-2 UFC) attempts to make it three in a row as he meets wrestling standout Mike Massenzio (13-5 MMA, 2-3 UFC), who recently dodged the Zuffa axe with by outpointing Steve Cantwell in his most recent appearance.

Also, the almost-undefeated Erick Silva (13-1 MMA, 1-0 UFC) hopes to build on a KO of Luis Ramos in his octagon debut with a win over UFC newcomer and longtime veteran Carlo Prater (29-10-1 MMA, 0-0 UFC). And undefeated lightweight Edson Barboza (9-0 MMA, 3-0 UFC) and Terry Etim (15-3 MMA, 6-3 UFC) meet in a fight that could move the winner toward the cusp of a top-10 opponent in the division.

The finalized UFC 142 lineup includes:

MAIN CARD (Pay-per-view)